Economics
Macroeconomics, IMF data, global economic trends and sovereign finance
115 articles
El crédito bancario se expande en $20.1B mientras los préstamos C&I aumentan un 10% interanual, superando el lento crecimiento del sector inmobiliario.
Total bank credit rose to $19.88T (+$20.1B WoW) with a 101.0% credit/deposit ratio, signaling continued lending appetite despite Fed Funds at 3.75%, as businesses drive expansion while real estate lags.
Los rendimientos del Tesoro a 10 años caen 8 puntos básicos a 5.19% mientras la curva se empina.
The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.19%, down 8 bps for the week, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened to 33 bps, signaling a modestly steeper curve.
El balance de la Fed se reduce un 24.7% a $6.75T mientras las reservas alcanzan un crítico $333.7B
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.75T, down $2.22T (24.7%) from its 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $333.7B — below critical levels — signaling mounting liquidity stress in financial markets.
Los spreads de HY se mantienen en 311 bps mientras los mercados de crédito hacen una pausa en medio de señales de riesgo mixtas.
High-yield spreads remain at 311 bps in a NORMAL regime, with a neutral week-on-week trend (-1 bp) suggesting cautious stability as investors weigh economic data against corporate earnings.
Perspectiva de Inflación a 10 Años se Mantiene Estable en 2.33%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
El rendimiento a 10 años cae 6 puntos básicos a 5.22% mientras la curva mantiene una pendiente positiva.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 bps to 5.22% on Tuesday, extending its weekly decline while maintaining a positive spread over 2-year notes, signaling persistent growth expectations amid easing rate pressures.
Los spreads de HY se amplían a 315 bps a medida que los mercados de crédito digieren un apetito de riesgo mixto.
High-yield spreads rose 6 bps to 315 bps today, remaining in a NORMAL regime but extending a widening trend, signaling cautious investor sentiment amid elevated Treasury yields and corporate refinancing concerns.
Las expectativas de inflación a 10 años se mantienen estables en 2.33%, aún en el objetivo.
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Los spreads de HY se amplían a 309 bps en medio de un sentimiento de riesgo mixto, manteniéndose cerca de la mediana de 10 años.
US high-yield spreads rose 6 bps to 309 bps (54th percentile) in a NORMAL regime, signaling cautious risk appetite as the 20-day MA (288 bps) diverges from the 60-day MA (277 bps), testing recent stability.
Las expectativas de inflación se mantienen estables en el nivel objetivo.
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
El balance de la Fed se reduce a $6.74T, reservas en un crítico $361.9B mientras continúa QT.
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74T, down $2.22T (24.8%) from its April 2022 peak, with reserves at $361.9B — a critically low level that risks tightening financial conditions further.
La tasa de hipoteca a 30 años alcanza el 7.28%, un máximo de 52 semanas, presionando a los compradores de viviendas.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.28% this week, up 25 basis points, pushing the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan to $2,737 — $241 more than a year ago.
Las solicitudes de desempleo en EE. UU. bajan ligeramente a 197,000 mientras el mercado laboral se mantiene estable.
Initial jobless claims edged down by 2,000 to 197,000 in the week ending October 3, marking a 1.0% decline from the previous week and signaling continued stability in the labor market.
Los spreads de HY se amplían a 312 puntos básicos a medida que el sentimiento de riesgo se enfría en medio de un régimen crediticio normal.
US high-yield spreads rose 2 bps to 312 bps today, extending the week's 10 bps widening in a NORMAL regime, signaling cautious risk appetite as investors weigh economic resilience against elevated Treasury yields.
Las expectativas de inflación se mantienen estables en 2.36%, en línea con el objetivo.
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
El rendimiento a 10 años se acerca al máximo de 52 semanas mientras la curva se empina a 47 puntos básicos.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 bps to 5.28% on Tuesday, extending its weekly climb to 11 bps as the 2Y-10Y spread widened to 47 bps, signaling persistent growth expectations despite Fed tightening.
Los spreads de HY se estrechan 14 puntos básicos a 310 puntos básicos a medida que el apetito por el riesgo se recupera tras la reciente ampliación.
High-yield spreads tightened 14bps to 310bps today, remaining in a NORMAL regime but still widening week-on-week (+17bps), signaling cautious investor optimism amid lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.
Inflación Estable: 10Y Breakeven Se Mantiene en 2.36%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Las expectativas de inflación se mantienen estables en 2.36%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
El crédito bancario se expande en $9.5B a pesar de la fuga de depósitos; los préstamos comerciales lideran con un +9.8% interanual.
Total bank credit rose to $19.88T (+$9.5B WoW) with a 101.6% credit/deposit ratio, signaling continued lending appetite despite $89.1B deposit outflow, as businesses drive growth with C&I loans surging near double-digits.
El Informe de Empleos de agosto muestra un aumento de 162k, el desempleo se mantiene en 4.1% mientras el crecimiento salarial se enfría.
U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August 2026, outpacing the 3-month average of 71k but showing moderation from recent highs, as wage growth slowed to 3.3% YoY and unemployment held at 4.1%.
El rendimiento a 10 años alcanza un máximo de 52 semanas del 5.29% mientras la curva se empina.
The 10-year Treasury yield surged 18 bps this week to 5.29%, a 52-week high, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened 15 bps to +46 bps, signaling persistent inflation concerns and growth expectations.
Los diferenciales de HY se amplían a 312 pb a medida que persiste el sentimiento de aversión al riesgo hasta el viernes.
US high-yield spreads rose 4 bps to 312 bps today, now 39 bps wider on the week, as the NORMAL-regime market continues its WIDENING trajectory, signaling growing investor caution toward credit risk amid elevated Treasury yields.
La inflación se mantiene estable mientras el 10Y Breakeven se mantiene en 2.36%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the